It’s that time of year again: the leaves are changing color, the slate of Fall network television shows are mere days from premiering, and the Emmy Awards are this Sunday on NBC. While I say this every year, awards don’t mean a show is necessarily good. But, when we look back on yesteryear, the list of Emmy winners should, in a perfect world, tell us exactly which shows and performances were the cream of the crop. Considering Modern Family won the Best Comedy Series Emmy five times more than it should have (it has five of them), we can see the awards don’t always get it right. That being said, here’s a list of who should win an Emmy this Sunday, and who voters likely chose.
Best Comedy Series
Atlanta
Barry
black-ish
Curb Your Enthusiasm
GLOW
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Who Should Win: This is a hell of a list. I would honestly be ok with almost any one of these shows taking the statue. But the second season of Atlanta was so smart, interesting, and just plain original that I give the series the edge. I mean, the “Teddy Perkins” episode alone was enough to cement a place for the series on my Best of 2018 list, months before I sit down to write it.
Who Will Win: With Veep out of the running this year due to its delayed final season, the field is wide open. While some critics are predicting a Maisel victory (all that Amazon money managed to snag the series a few Golden Globes last January), I really can’t see voters picking anything over Atlanta. The show has serious buzz. It’s stars, particularly creator Donald Glover, are everywhere in pop culture this year. It’s the one to beat.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
William H. Macy, Shameless
Who Should Win: I would love to see several of these men take home a statue here. Seeing Ted Danson as the only acting representative for the absolutely spectacular The Good Place will have to be a reward in itself. And Bill Hader was simply mesmerizing as a hitman-turned-actor in Barry. But what Glover did this season on Atlanta (again, TEDDY PERKINS) makes him my pick.
Who Will Win: Glover won this award last year, and that makes him the one to beat this time around. Danson was an Emmy favorite back in the Cheers days (and I suspect that’s what got him the nomination, as I can’t see too many voters watching the little-seen The Good Place– which you all should definitely be watching). Hader might get a boost from being on HBO (especially in a year without any Veep to vote for). But I think Glover will repeat. He’s just too hot right now.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Allison Janney, Mom
Issa Rae, Insecure
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Who Should Win: I have to admit that I haven’t yet gotten around to watching Better Things (I know, I know, I’ll do it as soon as I can), so I can’t speak to Adlon’s worth here (although my fellow critics absolutely adore her). That being said, Rachel Brosnahan absolutely killed it in season one of Maisel. It wasn’t an easy role to play, and she managed to hit all the right notes. I’d love to see her get an Emmy to go with her Golden Globe.
Who Will Win: Again, Amazon tends to be able to swing some votes, especially in the realm of comedy. But Allison Janney is the juggernaut, having won seven Emmys in her career, along with two for this role before she got bumped up to leading actress (the same thing happened to her on The West Wing and she won in the lead category as well). Again, without Veep in the running, this means someone other than Julia Louis-Dreyfus is going to win the statue. I suspect voters will look beyond the flashy new actor in Brosnahan and simply go with the tried-and-true Janney.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Henry Winkler, Barry
Who Should Win: Honestly, I’m fine with anyone other than Alec Baldwin winning. Kenan Thompson has, along with Kate McKinnon, been the glue holding SNL together for the past several years. Henry Winkler was hilarious on Barry, and Brian Tyree Henry is the quiet soul at the heart of Atlanta. Burgess and Shalhoub are both great in their respective roles. That being said, I would love to see Henry win this. Seeing how Paper Boi has grown and matured over the past two seasons has been wonderful, and so much of that is down to Henry’s excellent work on the show.
Who Will Win: Louis Anderson and Alex Baldwin are the two most recent winners. I suspect the bloom is off the SNL Trump rose, but Hollywood still wants to stick it to Trump any way they can, so there might be a repeat. I really hope not, and if that happens, I think it’s between Henry and Winkler.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Zazie Beetz, Atlanta
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live
Betty Gilpin, GLOW
Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Laurie Metcalf, Roseanne
Megan Mullally, Will & Grace
Who Should Win: This is such a strange category. Out of this list, only Gilpin, Borstein, Beetz, and McKinnon really should be on it. The rest is a hodgepodge of nostalgia nominations and throwing in everyone from SNL. That being said, I absolutely loved Alex Borstein on Maisel. After years of being a true supporting actress and popping up everywhere, Borstein has finally been given a chance to soar. I would love to see her take this one.
Who Will Win: Comedy categories like to give awards to the same performers and programs year after year (see Modern Family‘s ridiculous streak and Julia Louis-Dreyfus as recent examples). Since McKinnon has won two years in a row, and nostalgia isn’t as strong for Mullally and Metcalf as one might think, Kate McKinnon is winning again.
Best Drama Series
The Americans
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld
Who Should Win: The Americans. It was, far and away, the best series on this list in the past year. And it will be remembered as one of the greatest dramas ever to grace our television screens. It’s a no-brainer.
Who Will Win: It seems like it aired years ago (and it technically did air over a year ago, but it missed the cut-off for the 2017 awards, so it’s nominated this time around), and it wasn’t universally loved (I had lots of issues with the season’s pacing and structure), but I’d be shocked if anything other than Game of Thrones walks away with this one. Sure, The Handmaid’s Tale won last year during the Thrones-less ceremony, but their sophomore season left many people with a bad taste in their mouths. So, Thrones will return to dominance.
Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Ed Harris, Westworld
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld
Who Should Win: Matthew Rhys spent six seasons turning a cold Russian spy into the emotional heart of The Americans. Rhys mastered the art of the sad stare like no other. He should win this award as the cap on a great run playing a spectacular character.
Who Will Win: There’s a chance Rhys will walk away with this one (probably the only major award the show has a shot at). But Sterling K. Brown won last year, and the Emmys love him (and his speeches). So I’m going Brown.
Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Foy, The Crown
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Keri Russell, The Americans
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Who Should Win: This is a stacked category. I loved Sandra Oh’s exquisite work in Killing Eve. While I didn’t care for the second season of The Handmaid’s Tale, I can’t deny that Elisabeth Moss is giving an all-time great performance on the series. But, Keri Russell crushed my heart and soul with her work in the final season of The Americans. I would love to see her get recognized.
Who Will Win: The Emmys love to pick a familiar face, and I think they give Moss her second Emmy. Which, in the grand scheme of things, won’t disappoint me too much, as she’s giving a hell of a performance, even if the show isn’t matching the quality.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale
David Harbour, Stranger Things
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Matt Smith, The Crown
Who Should Win: This is a pretty ho-hum list here. If I have to pick someone, I’d pick Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, who has done such great work over the years on Thrones, yet has never had a nomination until this season (seriously). Jamie has become one of the show’s best characters through his performance.
Who Will Win: The Emmys love two things: Game of Thrones and Peter Dinklage. He’s going to win once again.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale
Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Vanessa Kirby, The Crown
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
Who Should Win: Early in season two of The Handmaid’s Tale, I was convinced Yvonne Strahovski was going to win her first Emmy this year. And then the writers decided to tear down the interesting character they had built through sloppy writing, and that ended my hopes for her. Alexis Bledel won last year as a guest actor, and was excellent in her expanded role this time around. Ann Dowd was the winner last year in this category, but we didn’t see enough of Aunt Lydia to let me give it to her again this year. Vanessa Kirby was heartbreaking in her Margaret-centric episodes on The Crown this year, so she’s who I would give the trophy to.
Who Will Win: I suspect the Academy will reward Bledel for her increased workload with another Emmy.
