The Covid-19 pandemic has had a massive impact on the world, and we will possibility feel its economic and social impacts for years to come. The worlds of film and filmmaking will also be affected.
One of the biggest pieces of film news to come during the pandemic was the deal struck between AMC Theaters and Universal. Universal has planned to release films in cinemas and on Premium VOD at the same time. This led to a revolt from American cinema chains with AMC threatening to not show Universal’s film. AMC has had an about turn with their deal the window between the cinema release and the home release to 17 days. In exchange AMC will a percentage of the PVOD gross.
This has led to people proclaiming AMC has signed their own death warrant. AMC is in financial trouble and Universal clearly took advantage. With the virus still raging in America, it is unlikely that cinemas will be opening anytime soon. But at the time of writing other cinema chains haven’t made the deal. Mooky Greidinger, the CEO of Cineworld which owns Regal Theaters in the US, has been critical of the deal and stated they are not going to break from the current theatrical window model. There are a lot of caveats like the deal only affecting the American market, it not international.
There are big issues with the deal because other cinema chains may refuse to show Universal films in retaliation. When AMC had exclusivity deals for Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse and Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension they ended up being box-office disasters and Universal wouldn’t want a similar result. The cinema chains did revolt against Universal back in 2011 when they planned to release Tower Heist for 30 days before putting it on PVOD. Universal ended up backing down.
Whilst some people have proclaimed PVOD the future of film distribution and Trolls World Tour was a great success. It made $100 million in the first three weeks of its release with Universal getting to keep most of the revenue. However, Trolls World Tour was a fluke because it was a family film, a sequel, and had a massive marketing campaign behind it. Other films that have been released as PVOD have been nowhere near as successful. Capone made $2.5 million within 10 days of its PVOD release, which was considered strong, but that wasn’t enough to cover the film’s costs. Many studios haven’t released the sale figures for PVOD rentals which is hardly a ringing endorsement. The cost of PVOD rental is high, around $20 in the US, and that has been a turn off for many potential viewers. Studios are waiting for the pandemic to be over so they can release their major tentpoles i.e. Fast and Furious and Black Widow because they will make a lot more money in cinemas than as a PVOD release. They would have been released on PVOD if studios really thought they would make money through that distribution model.
Other studios are watching the AMC and Universal deal before they make any moves regarding any renegotiate their deals with cinema chains. If they follow suit, then it would flood the PVOD market which could force prices down but also cut potential revenue. PVOD will properly be a dumping ground for that flopped hard in cinemas or don’t have a home in multiplexes. The potential rise of PVOD could have a negative effect because some people could be able to rip a PVOD rental copy and make it available to be pirated.
UPDATE: Since the publication of this article Disney has announced they are going to release Mulan on Disney+ as a PVOD add-on. This was a shocking move because Mulan was meant to be one of Disney’s tentpole films and they placed a $29.99 price tag on the film, on top of a Disney+ subscription. This announcement was met with disdain by film fans and many believe Mulan is set to be a flop. Disney even had to come out and that anyone who pays for the film gets to keep as long as they have Disney+, instead of a rental. But the price is only worthwhile to a family of four or more: it punishes single people and childless couples. People can wait for cheaper options like the Blu-ray release or when Mulan becomes a part of the normal Disney+ package. Or some people may just pirate it. If Mulan is a success then would start a slippy slop where more blockbusters are released this way and make film watching an incredibly expensive hobby.
Future film productions could go in two ways. The first is studios could double down on current treads and invest in special effects-laden franchise films to ensure people return to cinemas. If the cinema apocalypse happens and cinemas close than studios could decrease budgets. Not so much money would be required to pay as much for actors and marketing, but there would also a lot of the spectacle would disappear because films on TV don’t have the same impact as films on the silver screen.
A potential change in the cinema experience is social distancing. The need for social distancing would mean cinema screens will end up being half full and leads to cinemas making less money. Within the UK cinemas that have opened have been unable to sell food and drink, which means another revenue stream is cut off. Europe and Asia look like they are on the verge of a second wave which could result in another lockdown and if there is no vaccine then lockdowns could end up being a regular occurrence.
Filming has also been affected by the pandemic. When the COVID outbreak started to hit Europe and North America all film and TV production choose to shut down. This included major productions like Mission Impossible VII and Stranger Things. When lockdown restrictions eased productions had to take precautions like social distancing and limiting roles for older actors. If a cast or crew member test positive for Covid-19 then it forces a production to shut down: this happened to Jurassic World: Dominion which is filming in the UK. This results in costs and delays.
The final consequence of the pandemic is Hollywood’s relationship with China. Since the late-noughties Hollywood had been coveted the Chinese market. More films were set in China and Chinese stars appeared in blockbusters like X-Men: Days of Future Past and Transformers: Age of Extinction. Chinese companies funded Hollywood films and some Chinese films brought in Hollywood stars like Christian Bale and Bruce Willis for their productions. The appeal of China was the nation and their companies has a lot of money and the large population meant there’s a large potential audience. The Chinese box-office was able to save films like Pacific Rim and Warcraft.
But since the election of Donald Trump relations between the US and China have become frostier with Trump launching a trade war. The relations between the West and China have only gotten worse because of China’s crackdown in Hong Kong, the treatment of the Uighur people in Xinjiang, and of course, the Chinese government’s coverup of the outbreak in Wuhan. Whoever wins the 2020 election the relationship between the West and China will be less open. Chinese companies and money will be treated with a lot more suspicion and they will find it harder to operate in the West. In retaliation, less Hollywood films will be released in China because China has strict quotas on the number of foreign films that can be released in the nation, so Hollywood blockbusters are less likely to cater to that nation.
