The Coronavirus has had a massive impact around the world, including in the film and TV industries. A major event in the world of film during the crisis was Universal’s release of Trolls World Tour, an action that may have started a war between Universal Pictures and cinema chains.
When Lockdowns started in North America and Europe it coincided with Universal’s planned release for Trolls World Tour. The studio wanted to release the film for the lucrative Easter window and they had already spent money millions on marketing. They had also released the film in numerous Asian nations before the American and European Lockdowns, so there was a high risk of piracy. Because of these factors, Universal decided that a Premium Video-on-Demand release.
Universal proclaimed the release of Trolls World Tour a success. It ended up being a lucrative move: the film making $100 million in the first three weeks from North America. Universal got a bigger share of the income than they would have from a theatrical release. This led to NBCUniversal Jeff Shell suggesting Universal might release some films at the cinema and on-demand simultaneously. Cinema chains saw this statement as beyond-the-pale. AMC, the largest cinema chain in America, announced that they wouldn’t show any Universal films in theatres, and Odeon and Cineworld (owners of Regal Entertainment) followed suit.
The release of Trolls World Tour was seen by some as a new model for movie distribution and a potential death knell for cinemas. This is a foolhardy conclusion for numerous reasons.
Trolls World Tour was a special case. If it weren’t for the pandemic then Trolls World Tour would have had a regular theatrical release and a VOD wouldn’t have been considered. The Premium VOD release was done out of necessity. Trolls World Tour had some inbuilt advantages which led to its success. It’s a film that’s a sequel to a popular family film, well received by critics, and parents would have been looking for new content to entertain the kids during the Lockdown. The rental price point of £15.99/$19.999 would be cheaper than a cinema trip for a family of three or more. It’s unlikely that upcoming VOD releases like Capone and The King of Staten Island are going to be anywhere near as successful as Trolls World Tour.
The price point of £15.99/$19.99 is extensive for 48-hour rental. It’s a much as a new Blu-ray and there are other options for consumers such as cheaper digital releases and streaming services. Audiences would properly wait for the home release or comes out on a streaming service than pay such a high price point. Within the UK some cinema chains offer a monthly membership for £18 (£20 in Central London) which allows for limitless cinema watching and free preview screenings.
This wouldn’t be the first time that cinema chains and a major studio had a conflict over home releases. In 2010 the three biggest cinema chains in the UK threaten to boycott the release of Alice in Wonderland because Disney wanted to shorten the release window between the theatrical and the home media releases. Disney wanted to shorten it from 17 weeks to 12 weeks. In the end, Disney and the cinema chains had to compromise to secure the theatrical, and something similar will properly happen to resolve this dispute.
Universal has no major films coming out in the next 12 months like No Time To Die, Fast & Furious 9, Jurassic Park: Dominion, and Minions 2. It would be the interests of Universal and the cinema chains to settle this dispute because these films are a license to print money. Audiences would want to see these films on the big screen and enjoy the opening weekend experience. The only way I can see films of this statue getting a Premium VOD release is if it pandemic is worst than originally predicted and there are multiple long Lockdowns.
The death of cinemas has been predicted numerous times before, like with the invention of television and the rise of VHS and streaming services. Cinemas were able to overcome the competition and the sector will adapt again to counter VOD.
I predict Premium VOD will just be the new straight-to-video, a way for studios to dump films that are likely to flop at the cinema. The film critic Mathew Buck already predicted this during his review of 2015. The pandemic has ended up being an excuse for films to be dumped onto streaming services: The New Mutants is likely to get a VOD release and Disney is planning to release Artemis Fowl straight to Disney+ to prevent it being a box office embarrassment. At best Premium VOD could be a way for indie films and niche films to get attention.
