2019 Emmy Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win, and Who Got Snubbed

A chill is in the air (at least in the Midwest and New England – sorry rest of the country) and fall is just around the corner. Which means it’s once again time for the Emmy Awards – a night for the television folks to pat themselves on the back for another year of way too many shows for anyone in the world to watch. But while we have been inundated with quantity, we’ve also been lucky enough to have a host of good to exceptional shows to feast our eyes on this past year. In a season when I could find little fault in the list of Emmy nominees, I’ll take a minute to make some predictions* (and hit on a few snubs) to help you win your office Emmy Pool.

*I’m still woefully behind in watching the Limited Series nominees this year, so I won’t make any picks in those categories. I will say I loved HBO’s Chernobyl, so I’m pulling for it (and the great Jared Harris) to take home some statuettes.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)

Anthony Carrigan, “Barry” (HBO)

Tony Hale, “Veep” (HBO)

Stephen Root, “Barry” (HBO)

Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Henry Winkler, “Barry” (HBO)

Who Should Win: Henry Winkler took the win last year (and gave a truly heartwarming speech), and I would love to see the trophy kept in the Barry family this time around with Anthony Carrigan winning for his hilarious Chechen mobster NoHo Hank. While Winkler was given the bulk of the supporting work in season one, Carrigan was given the chance to shine in season two and he absolutely ran away with the series.

Who Will Win: This is a hard one. With Veep in its final victory lap, I could see Tony Hale sneaking off with a final trophy for his great work as Gary, Selina Meyer’s much abused bag man, but the lack of acting nominations for his fellow Veep supporting actors make me think the tide has turned and voters are going to keep pushing their love of Barry. That being said, there are three nominees from Barry in the pack and it’s possible they split the vote here, and an older beloved actor like Alan Arkin walks away with it. I’m going with my gut and saying Carrigan gets his first Emmy this Sunday.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: This is a pretty solid category, although Arkin and Tony Shalhoub are the weakest of the bunch (which is a strange sentence to type, seeing as how both are wonderful actors with storied careers), and I would have liked to see the supporting cast of The Good Place and the supporting players of Schitt’s Creek recognized over both of them.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Anna Chlumsky, “Veep” (HBO)

Sian Clifford, “Fleabag” (Amazon)

Olivia Colman, “Fleabag” (Amazon)

Betty Gilpin, “GLOW” (Netflix)

Sarah Goldberg, “Barry” (HBO)

Marin Hinkle, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Kate McKinnon, “SNL” (NBC)

Who Should Win: Talk about a stacked category. Oof. With the exception of Marin Hinkle (who is great, but just doesn’t have a meaty enough role to justify the nomination here, especially when compared with co-star Alex Borstein, who is really the second lead on their series), I would be fine with any of these ladies walking away with the trophy on Sunday. But the rules say I have to make a pick and I’m going with Sian Clifford. Much has been made of Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s genius (and rightly so), but much of season two of Fleabag falls apart without Clifford’s sensation work as Clare, Fleabag’s seemingly put-together sister (who happens to be coming apart at the seams). The sisterly relationship between the pair buoys much of the comedy and drama in the series, and while Fleabag makes some strides of her own, it’s her support of Clare that shows us her real emotional center. A great supporting player elevates the story and helps bring its central narrative into focus; Clifford does exactly that (and then some) in season two of Fleabag.

Who Will Win: The Emmys don’t like trying something new, and I suspect most of these actresses’ names won’t register enough with voters to get their votes. Also in play: Amazon seems to have thrown its considerable Emmy budget behind Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, meaning it has left Fleabag largely out in the cold. So, I think Borstein will take home her second Emmy for her great work on Maisel (and she certainly deserves it – the show doesn’t work without her).

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I would have loved to see, as with Supporting Actor, some love for Schitt’s Creek and The Good Place – two shows with incredibly deep benches. Hell, D’Arcy Carden of The Good Place did an entire episode where she played nearly every character and she couldn’t score a nomination for that?!?

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish” (ABC)

Don Cheadle, “Black Monday” (Showtime)

Ted Danson, “The Good Place” (NBC)

Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)

Bill Hader, “Barry” (HBO)

Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop)

Who Should Win: The Good Place is the best comedy currently airing on television (and far and away the best comedy on network television in years). It owes a huge debt to the exquisite work of Ted Danson (who is the sole acting nominee of the wonderful cast). I would love to see Danson get a win here.

Who Will Win: Bill Hader won last year, and his work was even better in season two, so I suspect the Emmys will stick with tradition and give him the statue again. If it’s anyone else, look for Michael Douglas as the dark horse – despite the plethora of movie stars on TV these days, they still love to give awards to them.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: This list is less impressive than on the actress side of things (more evidence that television may have many more roles for me, but the best roles are for women at the moment), it’s still missing a couple of  shining stars. Eugene Levy is delightful on Schitt’s Creek, but I would have loved to see a nomination for his son, Daniel Levy, who created the series and is its real star. I also would have loved a nod for Ramy Youssef, the excellent star and creator of the Hulu comedy Ramy.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me” (Netflix)

Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (HBO)

Natasha Lyonne, “Russian Doll” (Netflix)

Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop)

Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag” (Amazon)

Who Should Win: I genuinely loved all these performances (although I’m not sure Christina Applegate should be on the list), and would be fine with anyone winning. That being said, Phoebe Waller-Bridge created, wrote, and starred in the best show of 2019. She should win.

Who Will Win: In any other year, Waller-Bridge would have this in the bag. Unfortunately for her, she’s going to lose to Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Every year Louis-Dreyfus has been nominated for her great work on Veep, she’s won an Emmy. This is the final chance for the Academy to laud her work and they will. And, in the process, it will make her the first actor to win an Emmy for every season of a show – a feat I suspect will never be duplicated.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: The one name that immediately comes to mind is Kristen Bell of The Good Place. The show simply doesn’t work with her, and it’s a shame she’s not up there.

Comedy Series

“Barry” (HBO)

“Fleabag” (Amazon)

“The Good Place” (NBC)

“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon)

“Russian Doll” (Netflix)

“Schitt’s Creek” (Pop)

“Veep” (HBO)

Who Should Win: Let me preface this by saying this is absolutely a list of the best comedies on television, full stop. Yes, some are missing, but wow. What a group. I highly recommend each of these shows. But, if I had to pick one, it’s Fleabag. It’s almost certainly going to be named my favorite show of 2019. It’s an exquisite exercise in constructing a short narrative, delving deeply into characters, and setting up incredible beats to allow actors the chance to shine. I loved this show, and it had the perfect ending. It should wrap up its victory lap with an Emmy win.

Who Will Win: While it’s more likely Fleabag upsets here than in Leading Actress, I still think voters will push aside all the hype and give Veep one more win. But I really hope it’s Fleabag.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Hulu’s freshman trio of comedies (Ramy, Shrill, and Pen15) all deserved a shot. Maybe a nomination for the excellent One Day at a Time? However, this list is pretty perfect.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Alfie Allen, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

Michael Kelly, “House of Cards” (Netflix)

Chris Sullivan, “This is Us” (NBC)

Who Should Win: This is an . . . odd list of nominees. I’m not sure I’d pick any of them, but out of the batch Jonathan Banks had the strongest work in the past television season (it feels like a million years since the last season of Better Call Saul aired, although the Mike/Gus side of things was the weaker part of the story). Out of the many Thrones nominees, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing Nikolaj Coster-Waldau win, as he’s done some incredible work over the course of the show (remember that scene in the bath with Brienne – one of the best moments in the entire series?), and has never been nominated.

Who Will Win: It’s going to be Peter Dinklage (who really should be in the Lead Actor category, but whatever). He’s great, he had a fun character (even if they show largely did him dirty in the final season), and I can’t begrudge him another Emmy win.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Maybe some additional love for Pose? Ryan Jamaal Swain had a great arc in season one as Damon (and an even more interesting one in season two, which wasn’t eligible this year).

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Gwendoline Christie, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Julia Garner, “Ozark” (Netflix)

Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Fiona Shaw, “Killing Eve” (BBC America)

Sophie Turner, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Maisie Williams, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Who Should Win: While I love Fiona Shaw’s performance on Killing Eve, I have to go with my sentimental favorite here and pick Gwendoline Christie. There’s been a lot of press around HBO not submitting her for an Emmy, and Christie having to do it herself, which worries me that she doesn’t have the support to take this one. But her work over the course of the series has been so sensational that I have to pick her here. Yes, the final season of Thrones was a mess, but Christie did some incredible work – that knighting scene will live on as a shining beacon in an otherwise dismal season.

Who Will Win: Honestly, I have no idea. I suspect the Thrones gang will split the vote (although Lena Headey might take it if the voters go full-on Thrones), and that leaves Shaw and Julia Garner (who I enjoyed on The Americans, but haven’t seen on Ozark). For some reason, the Emmys love Ozark, so it could fall to Garner. But I think industry types like Shaw and her long history in the business. This category is a complete coin flip.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Here’s where we could have used a ton of Pose love. Indya Moore and Mj Rodriguez are stars and should be recognized as such. Also: What does Rhea Seehorn need to do to get a nomination? Kim Wexler became the audience surrogate in the last season of Better Call Saul, and in that, we leaned on Seehorn’s sensational performance to understand the continuing fall of Jimmy McGill. Seehorn was so great, and yet no nomination (despite her male co-stars continuing to pull in the nominations).

Leading Actor in a Drama Series

Jason Bateman, “Ozark” (Netflix)

Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us” (NBC)

Kit Harrington, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

Billy Porter, “Pose” (FX)

Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us” (NBC)

Who Should Win: Yikes. This is not a strong category at all, which makes my pick pretty simple: Billy Porter deserves the Emmy. I could make a strong case for Bob Odenkirk as well, but Porter is the heart and soul of Pose, and has become an international star and fashion plate as a result. Give him the Emmy.

Who Will Win: I suspect the Emmy will go to Porter, who has had plenty of buzz surrounding him over the past year (and the Emmys love people with buzz these days). If they want to play it safe, it’s going to be Kit Harrington (for his lackluster work as Jon Snow) or previous winner Sterling K. Brown. But I’m giving the Emmys a little credit: I think they’ll give it to Porter.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Honestly, there aren’t all that many standout roles for men in dramas these days (a strange thing to say). Perhaps one or more of the men from Succession? It was good enough for a nomination for Best Drama, yet not good enough to snag any nominations, which is a shame. Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong were great in season one and would have deserved a nomination here.

Leading Actress in a Drama Series

Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones” (HBO)

Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve” (BBC America)

Viola Davis, “How to Get Away With Murder” (ABC)

Laura Linney, “Ozark” (Netflix)

Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve” (BBC America)

Mandy Moore, “This Is Us” (NBC)

Robin Wright, “House of Cards” (Netflix)

Who Should Win: It’s really a race between Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh, and for my money, Comer had the stronger second season. But really, both should win and share the statue.

Who Will Win: This depends a lot on the tone of the night towards Thrones. Emilia Clarke did a great job with subpar writing in the show’s final season, so I wouldn’t begrudge a win here. That being said, if things aren’t going Thrones way with the other acting categories, I think Oh has enough widespread support in the electorate to win her first Emmy. She’s been nominated nine times without a win and I think she’s due.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: One of the biggest snubs was Julia Roberts, who did some excellent nuanced work in the series Homecoming (which was completely snubbed). Christine Baranski is killing it over at CBS All Access on The Good Fight (a show I think CBS is regretting putting on its little-seen streaming site rather than the mothership, considering how much critical acclaim it has and how little awards recognition it is getting). Either could easily have been slotted in in place of Robin Wright or Mandy Moore.

Drama Series

“Better Call Saul” (AMC)

“Bodyguard” (Netflix)

“Game of Thrones” (HBO)

“Killing Eve” (BBC America)

“Ozark” (Netflix)

“Pose” (FX)

“Succession” (HBO)

“This Is Us” (NBC)

Who Should Win: Half this list is excellent, half is not. Out of the top tier (Better Call Saul, Killing Eve, Pose, Succession), I would throw my support behind Better Call Saul, although it’s a tight race. The Jimmy/Kim side of the show was so tightly drawn, capped off with the chilling moment of Kim recognizing just who Jimmy McGill had devolved into, pushing the series just ahead of the other three for my vote.

Who Will Win: Listen, the vast majority of people agreed that the last season of Game of Thrones was not good. But I honestly cannot see any show but Thrones winning the Emmy on Sunday. Does it deserve it? No, not really. It hasn’t been the best show on television for a number of years. But it represented the only real watercooler show on TV – what other show out there can almost everyone talk about on a Monday morning? So, it will win, not because it deserves it, but because it represents the dying dream of TV being a universal medium.

What Should Have Been Nominated: The Good Fight is better than half the shows on the list, as was Homecoming. A number of shows (Handmaid’s Tale, Mindhunter) took the year off to avoid the Thrones juggernaut, so there aren’t a ton of options to pick from here. But, needless to say, this list could have used a bit of sprucing up.