This Sunday, September 20th, marks the 72nd Emmy Awards (airing on ABC at 8:00PM ET/7:00PM CT). We’re also still in the throws of a global pandemic, so instead of a glitzy red carpet, television’s royalty (and the occasional film star) sitting in an auditorium pretending to be thrilled with losing a golden statue to a lesser actor, and Jimmy Kimmel telling jokes from a stage, we’ll get a virtual ceremony – something that is still a novelty even after six months of lockdowns and quarantines. Perhaps the additional time at home means that Emmy voters will have actually watched most of the nominees this year? (I know, I know, fat chance of that.) Perhaps we’ll see some interesting winners and some fun home speeches from stars in pajamas. No matter what the situation, half of the fun (ok, most of the fun) of the Emmys for TV critics is trying to pick the winners. So, here’s my attempt to guess who will go home with the gold Sunday (or, rather, have a statue shipped to their house) – and my picks for who should win and who was robbed of a nomination.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Mahershala Ali, Ramy
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Sterling K. Brown, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
William Jackson Harper, The Good Place
Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
This set of nominees is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, we have Dan Levy, who’s performance on Schitt’s Creek is excellent – and also not a supporting performance. Then there’s Alan Arkin who is a wonderful actor but on a decidedly not good show. The best performance of the list comes from Mahershala Ali, although there’s a solid argument that Ramy no longer classifies as a comedy after a brilliant, but much more dramatic, sophomore season. Still, Ali was sensational – and Emmy voters do love to reward Oscar winners when they return to television. But Emmy voters also remain obsessed with Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and historically love Tony Shalhoub (who does a good job on the series), so I suspect that’s where they will look for a winner in this category.
Who Will Win: Tony Shalhoub, narrowly beating out other Emmy favorite Sterling K. Brown.
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali, even though Ramy isn’t really a comedy.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Manny Jacinto, for his great work as Jason Mendoza on The Good Place.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Betty Gilpin, GLOW
D’Arcy Carden, The Good Place
Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
Yvonne Orji, Insecure
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
This is an absolutely STACKED category, and I can’t really fault any of the nominations here. Ok, I guess I can – Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is more drama than comedy these days, and Alex Borstein is excellent but she’s not a supporting actress, she’s a co-lead in the series. Which might sound a bit like splitting hairs, but considering Borstein will almost certainly walk away with her third statue, it matters. Although, if either Schitt’s Creek (which has found even more viewers during the past months of quarantine than it had in its much watch sixth and final season this spring) or The Good Place are on pace for a big night for their final year of eligibility, Annie Murphy or D’Arcy Carden (who should have been nominated and won last year for her amazing work in the episode “Janets”) might unseat the champ. But I don’t see it happening.
Who Will Win: Alex Borstein once again.
Who Should Win: D’Arcy Carden, for being the heart of a show all about heart.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Jameela Jamil, for her wonderful work turning Tahani into a genuinely kind and compassionate character on The Good Place.
Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Out of this list, it’s a three-way race between Eugene Levy, Ted Danson, and Ramy Youssef (I know, an odd list – and it probably means Don Cheadle will win for a show no one watches). Levy is a well-known and well-liked actor on a well-liked series and would be a solid pick to reward the show without needing to give it any other awards. Danson is much the same, but also has a history of being liked by the Emmys, having won several in years past. And then there’s Youssef, a brilliant new writer, actor, and showrunner on Ramy, a great Hulu series (really, check it out) – he’s the flashy pick, and while that’s usually the Golden Globes’ forte (selecting one young actor to give a statue to – something they did this past January with Youssef), it would make a strong statement to give him the win here.
Who Will Win: Eugene Levy, to give a beloved actor some much deserved love.
Who Should Win: Ramy Youssef, for his complex and often hard to watch work on the (not really a comedy) Ramy.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Dan Levy, as David Rose is actually the series lead of Schitt’s Creek.
Actress in a Comedy Series
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Linda Cardellini, Dead to Me
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Issa Rae, Insecure
This is a strange set of names, only two of which really deserve a shot at winning. Dead to Me is an average at best series, and while Christina Applegate and Linda Cardellini do their level best to make the spotty writing work, these aren’t among the best performances on television. Tracee Ellis Ross and Rachel Brosnahan are both good at what they do, but again, their shows are past their prime. Which leaves Catherine O’Hara and Issa Rae, both the stars of their respective, well-respected shows. I can’t see the Emmys going out on a limb and giving Rae the award (which is a shame), so I suspect O’Hara, with her long and beloved career, will win her first Emmy.
Who Will Win: Catherine O’Hara, whose favorite season will now be Awards.
Who Should Win: O’Hara, for her Schitt’s Creek swan song.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Allison Brie for her excellent work on GLOW and Kristen Bell on The Good Place, as the show doesn’t work without her.
Comedy Series
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Dead to Me (Netflix)
The Good Place (NBC)
Insecure (HBO)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Schitt’s Creek (Pop)
What We Do In The Shadows (FX)
A solid list of mostly deserving shows (looking at you, Dead to Me and The Kominsky Method), and really, I could make a case for most of them to win (and I wouldn’t mind seeing most of them win). However, two stand out among the pack due to both their quality and the fact that they aired their final seasons this past year: The Good Place and Schitt’s Creek. I suspect voters will also feel the desire to award one of these worthy shows as they bow out.
Who Will Win: Schitt’s Creek, which has had a broader pop culture appeal and won over more fans in this last year than any of the others.
Who Should Win: The Good Place, which was a tad uneven over its last two seasons, but was the superior series over the course of its life and deserves the recognition.
What Should Have Been Nominated: GLOW
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Bradley Whitford, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Jeffrey Wright, “Westworld”
Stop trying to make Morning Show happen, awards shows! Sigh. This is a largely disappointing set of nominees, but there are some bright spots. The gentlemen from Succession all deserve their nominations, but I suspect they will split the vote (hell, it’s hard for me to pick my favorite of the three), and that will leave us with an unsatisfying winner in this category (I should stress, this is a great group of actors, just not the right group of nominees for this category – a refrain I will echo throughout most of the Drama categories, so you are forewarned). Sigh. While the Emmys largely nailed the Comedy categories, they really screwed things up in this section.
Who Will Win: Billy Crudup, because he’s the biggest “name” on the list and I suspect voters will go that route (and the Succession men will split their vote).
Who Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen (and it was a hard choice), whose Succession character was given the most interesting layered story out of the three in season two.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Both Tony Dalton and Michael Mando from Better Call Saul did sensational work this past year and I cannot believe the series didn’t get more love – it was far and away the best show of 2020 thus far and their performances were a huge part of that.
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Julia Garner, Ozark
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Sarah Snook, Succession
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve
Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sigh. Oh Emmy voters, why? When the best supporting performance in a drama doesn’t even make the list. . .well, it hurts. Rhea Seehorn gave the performance of the year on Better Call Saul and couldn’t even get a nomination. Sigh. Sure, there are some great actresses on this list, but frankly, only one deserves the statue here and that’s Sarah Snook – who I suspect won’t win due to being up against some serious stars. So, it’s between Helena Bonham Carter for a good turn as Princess Margaret on The Crown (although she really only had a couple of episodes worth of work) and Meryl Streep who is Meryl Streep. I think British royalty will take the win from Hollywood royalty in this one.
Who Will Win: Helena Bonham Carter, as the Emmys love giving awards to famous British actors who do costume dramas.
Who Should Win: Sarah Snook, whose Shiv Roy went through an absolute roller coaster of emotions in season two and still remained one of the show’s best and most nuanced characters.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Rhee Seehorn, who should have easily walked away with the victory as well, and any/all of the women from Pose, who were frustratingly shut-out in this category again.
Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Steve Carell, The Morning Show
Brian Cox, Succession
Billy Porter, Pose
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Another disappointing category. Half of of the nominees make sense: Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong are great on the soapy but engaging Succession and Billy Porter is sensational on Pose (and he won in this category last year). Everyone else? Meh. Sure. For some reason, Emmy voters LOVE the average at best Ozark, and they really like The Morning Show which is also not that great. And Sterling K. Brown remains the only acting nominee from the less-loved This Is Us (the only network drama represented in any of the major Emmy categories). All that being said, I think this will come down to Cox vs. Porter – either of which I would love to see win.
Who Will Win: Billy Porter for his intense, moving work on the excellent Pose.
Who Should Win: It’s a hard one, but I’m saying Porter again. I love the Succession boys, but Porter is better.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Nothing for Bob Odenkirk this year? Really? Better Call Saul was at its finest and he can’t get a nomination? Ouch. Not cool, Emmys.
Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Zendaya, Euphoria
Another dull and disappointing Drama category – although that’s not really the fault of the Emmys as there (shockingly) weren’t a ton of strong dramatic leading performances from women this past year (considering the wealth of options in the Limited Series and Comedy categories, this is a bit of a shock – normally drama is full of worthy options). With that said, I suspect this one will come down to Jennifer Aniston, who has won in the past for Friends, but that was two decades ago, and Oscar winner Olivia Colman (playing the Queen and having some previous awards pedigree always helps at the Emmys). While The Morning Show isn’t as good as The Crown (which wasn’t as great as its past installments), I think Aniston is the more popular name. Although, who knows, perhaps the Emmys will keep with the Ozarks love?
Who Will Win: Jennifer Aniston gets her second Emmy.
Who Should Win: Zendaya did exceptional work on the complex and not easy to watch Euphoria, but I think she’s not well known enough among older voters to snag the win here.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Maybe Elisabeth Moss, who was shut-out of the category this year? While Handmaid’s Tale has continued long past its expiration date, her work on the series remains excellent. And MJ Rodriguez is the heart and soul of Pose, yet cannot get a nomination? That’s inexcusable.
Drama Series
Better Call Saul (AMC)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Killing Eve (BBC America)
The Mandalorian (Disney+)
Ozark (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Succession (HBO)
Real Talk: Only two of the shows on this list are really among the best shows on television – Better Call Saul and Succession. The rest? A mix of the solid if not great (The Crown and Stranger Things) to the what are they thinking (The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, and The Mandalorian are all decidedly not good shows). So, in a perfect world, Better Call Saul would win and all would be right in the world. But as we all know very well at this point, we don’t live in a perfect world. So I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ozark win. I don’t think that will happen, but again, who knows?
Who Will Win: Considering Better Call Saul got burned in the acting nominations in a major way, I think this one goes to Succession, a show I love very much and one that would be a worthy winner here.
Who Should Win: Spoiler for my 2020 Best of the Year article: Better Call Saul was the best show of 2020. It should win the Emmy.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Yes, it’s in Italian. Yes, it’s a book adaptation. But HBO’s My Beautiful Friend was one of the best shows of the year and definitely should have gotten a nomination here.
Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Uzo Aduba, Mrs. America
Toni Collette, Unbelievable
Margo Martindale, Mrs. America
Jean Smart, Watchmen
Holland Taylor, Hollywood
Tracey Ullman, Mrs. America
Now this is a hell of a category. Mrs. America, Watchmen, and Unbelievable were all sensational projects with impeccable acting work (Hollywood, on the other hand, was an absolute mess). I think the three ladies from Mrs. America will split their vote, and considering Unbelievable couldn’t snag nominations for its two sensational leads (more on that below), I think this one will be Jean Smart’s to lose. Watchmen remains in the pop culture discussion nearly a year after it began airing, and Smart was incredible in it.
Who Will Win: Jean Smart, for a sassy, smart, and nuanced performance in the best show of 2019, Watchmen.
Who Should Win: While I loved nearly all of these performances, I still think back on Smart’s work regularly. She deserves this one.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: I honestly think this category is as close to perfect as you can get. Perhaps Sarah Paulson replacing her real-life partner Holland Taylor for her work in Mrs. America?
Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Watchmen
Jovan Adepo, Watchmen
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. The Reverend
Louis Gossett Jr., Watchmen
Dylan McDermott, Hollywood
Jim Parsons, Hollywood
This is a case where the actor with the flashiest (and most against-type) role will likely overshadow some of the more nuanced work and take the win, meaning Jim Parsons will snag another Emmy (that he’s a past winner and Emmy favorite also works in his favor). Is it the best work in the category? Nope, that would belong to the trio of men from Watchmen, although Tituss Burgess has always been stellar as Titus on Kimmy Schmidt. But I suspect the Watchmen men will split the vote and Parsons will win.
Who Will Win: Jim Parsons, for his brash and colorful work in the not good Hollywood.
Who Should Win: Toss-up between Jovan Adepo and Louis Gossett Jr. in Watchmen, who both played the same character (at different ages), but captured the heart and soul of a man who attempted to change the racist systems of America from the inside out. It was a hell of a performance from both of them.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Again, this is a pretty darn perfect category. Good work, Emmy voters.
Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Jeremy Irons, Watchmen
Hugh Jackman, Bad Education
Paul Mescal, Normal People
Jeremy Pope, Hollywood
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
This one is almost certainly going to Mark Ruffalo for playing tortured twins, but again, it’s a solid category of choices here. Paul Mescal would be the favorite if Normal People had gotten more Emmy love, but I suspect that his well-liked performance won’t be able to overcome the name recognition issue here. Jeremy Pope is a great up-and-coming actor, but again, Hollywood was not the right vehicle for him (or anyone else, thanks Ryan Murphy). Hugh Jackman was good in a mediocre movie and Jeremy Irons was wacky and strange but also the most forgettable thing about Watchmen (seriously, whenever we discuss the series, it’s never to discuss his work in it).
Who Will Win: Mark Ruffalo will take this one.
Who Should Win: Paul Mescal had the more interesting character, so I would give it to him.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: It might be hard to recall now, but El Camino, the Jesse Pinkman Breaking Bad sequel was eligible for this category. Yes, Aaron Paul has lots of Emmys for playing Jesse, but I was shocked that he didn’t at least get one more nomination here.
Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
Shira Haas, Unorthodox
Regina King, Watchmen
Octavia Spencer, Self Made
Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere
This is a two-woman race between Cate Blachett and Regina King, as both gave two of the finest television performances of the year, full-stop. But Watchmen has continued to be a pop culture phenomenon and King was just so darn great that I cannot see anyone beating her in this category. It’s her’s to lose.
Who Will Win: Regina King, for her sensational performance in the season’s best series.
Who Should Win: The Emmys will get this one right and award King.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: How the Emmys overlooked both Kaitlyn Dever and Merritt Weaver (a past winner that Emmy voters love) for their searing work in Unbelievable is frankly, unbelievable and strange. Perhaps voters hated Weaver’s other eligible series Run so much they didn’t vote for her here? No matter the reason, I can’t believe they were overlooked.
Limited Series
Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
Mrs. America (FX)
Unbelievable (Netflix)
Unorthodox (Netflix)
Watchmen (HBO)
This is the easiest category to predict out of the whole lot: Watchmen will win here and it will be much deserved. Even before America began its summer of reckoning with the continued racial injustices that infect our world, Watchmen was the best series to air in the last year. It’s not a perfect show, but it’s something special with a necessary message for us today.
Who Will Win: Watchmen
Who Should Win: Watchmen
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Not that it would have had a shot at winning against Watchmen, but The Plot Against America, a series that now feels more and more timely as the election approaches, should have been nominated in this category. If you haven’t watched the dark adaptation of Philip Roth’s novel, and want to feel even more worried about the upcoming American election, run over to HBO Max and watch it. It’s really great.
